With “bleak” prospects ahead, the world’s shipbuilders will have to fight for survival warns the latest report from Drewry Maritime Research, of London. This is because of the slump that has hit shipping markets says the company in its Annual World Shipbuilding Market Review and Forecast.
The review says shipbuilding production levels have remained at record high levels for two consecutive years (2010 -2011), with 2012 forecasted to remain close to 2011 levels. However, the orderbook has diminished rapidly and tails-off to very low levels for 2014 and beyond.
“Over-tonnaging and large operating inefficiencies mask the true levels of fleet under-utilisation and are hindering a recovery,” says the Drewry review.
“With the orderbook dominated by bulk carriers and container ships, two of the worst hit markets in terms of over supply wreaking havoc with rates, it reflects the fact that for some time now ordering activity by shipowners has exceeded the requirements of trade growth.”
To give an insight into the shipbuilding industry’s prospect, the Drewry’ report presents two scenarios covering the projected new building requirement by sector and ship type over a 15 year period, reflecting the uncertainty that surrounds the industry.
Only under the High Case scenario is there a requirement for further new ordering beyond the size of the orderbook at the start of 2012. Whereas under the more realistic Base Case, in virtually all fleet sectors, the size of the orderbook at the start of 2012 more than exceeded the new building requirement to 2016.